Hyundai will invest $5 billion toward US manufacturing and innovation

Hyundai will allocate an additional $5 billion toward investments in the US, the automaker announced on Sunday. The funds will support the company’s work in electric vehicles, robotics, air taxis, self-driving cars and artificial intelligence. The anno…

‘Stalker 2’ is reportedly back in development after Ukraine invasion forced studio to relocate

GSC Game World has reportedly resumed work on Stalker 2: Heart of Chornobyl after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced the studio to pause development. On March 2nd, the Kyiv-based developer announced it was putting the game on hold while it worked to help its employees and their families “survive” the conflict. According to reports from Czech media, the studio relocated its staff to Prague that same month.

Now it would appear the game is back on track. Responding to a question from a member of Stalker 2’sDiscord community asking if development had resumed, a GSC Game World employee said, “it continues,” in a message spotted by Polish gaming outlet GRYOnline. We’ve reached out to the studio for confirmation.

Following a delay at the start of the year, GSC Game World said it would release Stalker 2 on December 8th. The announcement came before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sidelined the studio. Since the war began, the company also subtly changed the game’s name. Its subtitle now reads “Heart of Chornobyl” instead of “Chernobyl,” with the former reflecting the local Ukrainian spelling of the site of the 1986 nuclear disaster.

Hitting the Books: How winning the lottery is a lot like being re-struck by lightning

A wise man once said, “never tell me the odds” but whether you’re calculating the chances of successfully navigating an asteroid field (3,720:1), shouting “Shazam” and having it work twice in a row (9 million:1), or winning the state lottery (42 million:1 in California), probabilities influence outcomes in our daily lives for events large and small alike. But for the widespread role they play in our lives, your average person is usually just pretty ok with accurately calculating them. As we see in the excerpt below from James C. Zimring’s latest title, Partial Truths: How Fractions Distort Our Thinking, our expectations regarding the likelihood of an event occurring can shift, depending on how the question is posed and which fraction is focused upon.

partial truths cover
Columbia University Press

Excerpted from Partial Truths: How Fractions Distort Our Thinking by James C. Zimring, published by Columbia Business School Publishing. Copyright (c) 2022 James C. Zimring. Used by arrangement with the Publisher. All rights reserved.

Mistaking the Likely for the Seemingly Impossible: Misjudging the Numerator

The more unlikely an event seems, the more it draws our attention when it does occur and the more compelled we feel to explain why it happened. This just makes good sense. If the world is not behaving according to the rules we understand, perhaps we misunderstand the rules. Our attention should be drawn to unlikely occurrences because new knowledge comes from our attempts to understand contradictions.

Sometimes what seems to be impossible is actually highly probable. A famous example of this is found with playing the lottery (i.e., the lottery fallacy). It is well understood that it is incredibly unlikely that any particular person will win the lottery. For example, the chance of any one ticket winning the Powerball lottery (the particular lottery analyzed in this chapter) is 1/292,000,000. This explains why so much attention is paid to the winners. Where did they buy their ticket? Did they see a fortune teller before buying their ticket, or do they have a history of showing psychic abilities? Do they have any special rituals they carry out before buying a ticket? It is a natural tendency to try to explain how such an unlikely event could have occurred. If we can identify a reason, then perhaps understanding it will help us win the lottery, too.

The lottery fallacy is not restricted to good things happening. Explanations also are sought to explain bad things. Some people are struck by lightning more than once, which seems just too unlikely to accept as random chance. There must be some explanation. Inevitably, it is speculated that the person may have some weird mutant trait that makes them attract electricity, or they carry certain metals on their person or have titanium prosthetics in their body. Perhaps they have been cursed by a mystical force or God has forsaken them.

The lottery fallacy can be understood as a form of mistaking one probability for another, or to continue with our theme from part 1, to mistake one fraction for another. One can express the odds of winning the lottery as the fraction (1/292,000,000), in which the numerator is the single number combination that wins and the denominator is all possible number combinations. The fallacy arises because we tend to notice only the one person with the one ticket who won the lottery. This is not the only person playing the lottery, however, and it is not the only ticket. How many tickets are purchased for any given drawing? The exact number changes, because more tickets are sold when the jackpot is higher; however, a typical drawing includes about 300 million tickets sold. Of course, some of the tickets sold must be duplicates, given that only 292 million combinations are possible. Moreover, if every possible combination were being purchased, then someone would win every drawing. In reality, about 50 percent of the drawings have a winner; thus, we can infer that, on average, 146 million different number combinations are purchased.

Of course, the news does not give us a list of all the people who did not win. Can you imagine the same headline every week, “299,999,999 People Failed to Win the Lottery, Again!” (names listed online at www.thisweekslosers.com). No, the news only tells us that there was a winner, and sometimes who the winner was. When we ask ourselves, “What are the odds of that person winning?” we are asking the wrong question and referring to the wrong fraction. The odds of that particular person winning are 1/292,000,000. By chance alone, that person should win the lottery once every 2,807,692 years that they consistently play (assuming two drawings per week). What we should be asking is “What are the odds of any person winning?”

In probability, the chances of either one thing or another thing happening are the sum of the individual probabilities. So, assuming no duplicate tickets, if only a single person were playing the lottery, then the odds of having a winner are 1/292,000,000. If two people are playing, the odds of having a winner are 2/292,000,000. If 1,000 people are playing, then the odds are 1,000/292,000,000. Once we consider that 146 million different number combinations are purchased, the top of the fraction (numerator) becomes incredibly large, and the odds that someone will win are quite high. When we marvel at the fact that someone has won the lottery, we mistake the real fraction (146,000,000/292,000,000) for the fraction (1/292,000,000) — that is, we are misjudging the numerator. What seems like an incredibly improbable event is actually quite likely. The human tendency to make this mistake is related to the availability heuristic, as described in chapter 2. Only the winner is “available” to our minds, and not all the many people who did not win.

Similarly, the odds of twice being struck by lightning over the course of one’s life are one in nine million. Because 7.9 billion people live on Earth, it is probable that 833 people will be hit by lightning twice in their lives (at least). As with the lottery example, our attention is drawn only to those who are struck by lightning. We fail to consider how many people never get struck. Just as it is unlikely that any one particular person will win the Powerball lottery, it is highly unlikely that no one will win the lottery after a few drawings, just given the number of people playing. Likewise, it is very unlikely that any one person will be twice hit by lightning, but it is even more unlikely that no one will, given the number of people in the world.

So, when we puzzle over such amazing things as someone winning the lottery or being twice struck by lightning, we actually are trying to explain why a highly probable thing happened, which really requires no explanation at all. The rules of the world are working exactly as we understand them, but we are mistaking the highly likely for the virtually impossible.

Boeing’s Starliner carried a ‘Kerbal Space Program’ character to the ISS

After two-and-a-half years of delays, Boeing’s Starliner capsule successfully docked with the International Space Station. It was an important milestone for a company that has, at least in the popular imagination, struggled to catch up with SpaceX. So it’s fitting how Boeing decided it would celebrate a successful mission.

When the crew of the ISS opened the hatch to Starliner, they found a surprise inside the spacecraft. Floating next to Orbital Flight Test-2’s seated test dummy was a plush toy representing Jebediah Kerman, one of four original “Kerbonauts” featured in Kerbal Space Program. Jeb, as he’s better known by the KSP community, served as the flight’s zero-g indicator. Russian cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin took a small doll with him on the first-ever human spaceflight, and ever since it has become a tradition for most space crews to carry plush toys with them to make it easy to see when they’ve entered a microgravity environment.

If you’ve ever played Kerbal Space Program, you have a sense of why it was so fitting Boeing decided to send Jeb to space. In KSP, designing spacecraft that will carry your Kerbonauts to orbit and beyond is no easy task. Often your initial designs will fall and crash as they struggle to fly free of Kerbin’s gravity. But you go back to the drawing board and tweak your designs until you find one that works. In a way, that’s exactly what Boeing’s engineers had to do after Starliner’s first test flight in 2019 failed due to a software issue, and its second one was delayed following an unexpected valve problem.

Boeing kept Jeb’s presence on OFT-2 secret until the spacecraft docked with the ISS. A spokesperson for the company told collectSPACE that Starliner’s engineering team chose the mascot in part because of the science, technology, engineering and math lessons KSP has to teach players. Jeb will spend the next few days with the crew of the ISS before they place him back in the spacecraft for its return trip to Earth.

iFixit will sell replacement parts for almost every Steam Deck component

We knew going into the launch of Valve’s Steam DeckDIY repairs would be easier than most modern electronics. And now it looks like finding replacement parts won’t be difficult either. On Friday evening, iFixit prematurely published a list of components it will offer for Valve’s handheld. The list revealed the company plans to sell spare parts for nearly every component found in Steam Deck, including replacement motherboards complete with the handheld’s custom Aerith chipset from AMD.

As The Verge points out, the company will even sell parts that could be considered upgrades. For instance, if you own the 64GB or 256GB model, you can buy the 512GB variant’s display to get the anti-glare screen that comes on that version of the handheld. For any panel replacements, you can also spend an extra $5 to obtain a “Fix Kit” that comes with all the tools you need to complete a screen swap.

One part iFixit won’t sell immediately is replacement batteries. It will offer those at a later date. “We don’t have a solution for battery repairs on day one, but we are committed to working with Valve to maintain these devices as they age,” iFixit CEO Kyle Wiens told The Verge. “Battery replacements are going to be essential to making the Steam Deck stand the test of time.”

Other spare parts that won’t be available on day one include replacements for the Steam Deck’s touchpads and face buttons. Most of the components are reasonably priced. For example, you’ll need to spend $20 to repair a broken thumbstick. The most expensive part on the list is a new motherboard, which will set you back $350. With a complete handheld from Valve starting at $400, it won’t be economical to build your own Steam Deck with parts from iFixit, but for most repairs, the company will have you covered.  

Google and Match Group reach temporary agreement on in-app payments

Match Group, the parent company of Tinder and Hinge, claims it has won “concessions” from Google in its antitrust battle against the search giant. On Friday, Match withdrew a restraining order after the two sides came to a temporary agreement on in-app payments.

Match filed the order against Google one day after it sued the company, alleging it had broken federal and state antitrust laws. At the center of the dispute is a policy change Google plans to implement next month. In the fall of 2020, the company “clarified” its stance on in-app payments, announcing it was moving toward requiring all Android developers to process payments involving “digital goods and services” through the Google Play Billing system. Following multiple extensions, developers have until June 1st to comply with the policy.

Match, however, claims Google had “previously assured” the company that it could use its own payments system. The company also claims Google threatened to remove its apps from the Play Store if Match did not comply with the policy change by the upcoming deadline.

Under their temporary agreement, Google will allow Match apps to remain on the Play Store and won’t remove them for including alternate payment systems. Additionally, the search giant has agreed to make a “good faith” effort to address Match’s concerns with Google Play Billing. Match, in turn, will make an effort to offer Google’s billing system as an option to consumers.

Lastly, instead of paying Google a commission on in-app purchases that occur outside of the company’s payment system, Match is establishing a $40 million escrow fund. Starting July 1st, Match will keep track of fees it would have normally owed Google. The fund will stay in place until the two sides go to court next April.

Following Match’s announcement, Google accused the company of publishing a “misleading” press release that “mischaracterizes” the terms of their agreement. “Match Group’s claim that it can’t integrate Play’s billing system because it lacks key features contradicts the fact that Match Group has been proactively and successfully using Play’s billing in more than 10 of its apps,” Google said. The company added it would file a countersuit against Match for violating its Developer Distribution Agreement ahead of their 2023 trial.

EA is reportedly seeking a sale or a merger

Electronic Arts is actively (and persistently) looking for a buyer or another company willing to merge with it, according to Puck. The video game company reportedly held talks with a number of potential buyers or partners, including Disney, Apple and Amazon. It’s unclear which were interested in fully purchasing EA and which were looking to merge, but in case of a merger, Puck said EA is seeking a deal that would allow Andrew Wilson to remain chief executive of the combined company.

EA approached Disney in March in an attempt to forge “a more meaningful relationship” that would go beyond licensing deals, according to the source. However, Disney decided not to push forward, perhaps because it’s currently focused on its nascent streaming service. The publication said the idea of a merger between EA and ESPN, which Disney partly owns, is being floated around in the industry.

Among all the potential partners, however, it was perhaps Comcast who got the closest to a deal. Comcast CEO Brian Roberts reportedly approached Wilson with an offer to merge NBCUniversal with EA. Under the deal, Roberts would take majority control of the merged company, but Wilson would remain chief executive. The people involved didn’t agree over the price of the sale and the structure of the combined entity, though, and the agreement fell through within the last month. 

EA remains a company of its own for now, but Puck said it has become more emboldened in its quest to find a sale or a merger since Microsoft announced that it’s snapping up Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, so that might not be be the case for long. It’s worth noting that Sony also revealed that it’s buying Destiny studio Bungie for $3.6 billion shortly after Microsoft announced the acquisition.

EA spokesperson John Reseburg told Puck that the company would not comment “on rumors and speculation relating to [mergers and acquisitions].” Reseburg added: “We are proud to be operating from a position of strength and growth, with a portfolio of amazing games, built around powerful IP, made by incredibly talented teams, and a network of more than half a billion players. We see a very bright future ahead.”

Recommended Reading: Inside Apple’s mixed-reality headset project

The inside story of why Apple bet big on a mixed-reality headset

Wayne Ma, The Information

The Information chronicles the development of Apple’s upcoming mixed-reality headset in the first of two articles. This first installment covers the initial struggles to get the project going and the constant delays created by a host of challenges. 

Behind CBS’ approach to elevating Serie A in the US

Felipe Cardenas, The Athletic

CBS pried the rights to Italy’s Serie A soccer league away from ESPN for Paramount+. The Athletic explains how a mix of “football and fun” helped the network package a league it thinks will become more popular in the US. 

Inside the smell-o-verse: Meet the companies trying to bring scent to the metaverse

Zara Stone, Fast Company

In addition to companies needing to solve the whole no legs in the metaverse problem, there are a number of startups trying to unlock another challenge for virtual worlds.