In five years, the world could cross a key climate threshold

Since global warming is a natural phenomenon exacerbated by human activities, the increase in average temperatures is inevitable. However, efforts are being made all over the world to slow down the evolution of climate change. However, these efforts may not be enough, as scientists have announced that we have a 50% chance of crossing a key climate threshold within five years.

A probable failure to meet the climate objectives of the 2015 Paris agreement

Climate change is wreaking havoc all over the world, and it could get even worse. But, it would seem that the current efforts to slow down the evolution of global warming are not enough. Indeed, scientists from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the British climate body Met Office announced in a report that there was a 50% chance that the increase in global average temperatures would cross the threshold of 1.5°C within the next five years. Note that this is the ceiling set for the increase in post-industrial revolution temperatures by the Paris agreement in 2015.

This threshold is considered vital to limit the worst impacts of global warming on populations and ecosystems. When this target was set, it was widely considered that there was no chance that such a disaster could occur, at least in the next five years. But with a jump of 20% in 2020 and 40% in 2021, global average temperatures were 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels in 2021. So this finding and prediction shows that humanity is on the point of failing to meet the climate targets it has set itself.

” As long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalasin a statement. The report also indicates that the overshoot of the climate threshold of 1.5°C could be temporary, with temperatures still likely to fall. But science shows that even a temporary increase could lead to irreversible changes on the planet and cause severe weather events during periods of rising temperatures.

The world will likely experience its hottest year by 2026

Among scientists’ greatest fears is the devastation this event will have on coral reefs and Arctic ice, reports CNN. Melting permafrost is particularly worrying, as it will release a large amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and further raise ocean levels. In other words, it could have a dreadful snowball effect on the whole world. ” The 1.5°C number is not a random statistic. Rather, it is an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful to people and even to the entire planet. “, thus declared the professor Petteri Taalas.

Furthermore, the report also explained that there is a 93% probability that at least one year between 2022 and 2026 will become the hottest year on record, thus dislodging 2016 at the top of the ranking. Such a prediction is frightening in view of the deadly heat wave currently raging in India and Pakistan. Note that if there is a 50% chance that the worst will happen, there is also a 50% chance that the disaster will be avoided. To do this, the only solution is to considerably reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which accelerate the evolution of global warming.